Why Is Predicting Crisis/Reset
So Difficult?
Charles Hugh Smith* lists 10 possible factors why it is difficult to predict a crisis or a reset like a global financial system reset .. while financial markets continue to defy gravity, one wonders when it will come to a crash .. lists the potential reasons:
1. Everyone in the status quo has a stake in its survival ..We shouldn't underestimate the power of this desire to maintain the status quo and bend perceptions to make that appear as if it is not just possible but inevitable.
2. Self-referential systems with numerous feedbacks are inherently difficult to predict because the forces we extrapolate into the future are adapting under various selective pressures that feed back into each other.
3. Systems feed on the herd instinct of humanity.
4. There is a body of sociological study that looks at how what we perceive as risks defines our ideological/sociological world view.
5. The status quo is a dynamic system with many players.
6. As a result of #1, alternative systems have very little leverage. Why bust our behinds getting a local farmer's market going when every supermarket is bulging with produce and products engineered to satisfy our reward centers?
7. Nobody fully understands these complex systems such as the reserve currency, even though the systems have been functioning for decades.
8. I tend to think John Michael Greer's concept of catabolic collapse is likely to be the most correct in terms of predicting future dynamics. Things keep following the same vectors for all the reasons stated above until something gives and they reset at a lower level of complexity/energy consumption.
9. It is fairly self-evident that we are in an unprecedented era--just looking at energy, debt and the Internet is enough to reach that conclusion. This means the past is not a very reliable guide.
10. New models of doing things are emergent, but that is not a passive process.
LINK HERE for more detail 
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