The "Grand Disconnect"
is Closing
Gary Shilling has emphasized that there is a big disconnect between rising financial markets & the slow economy .. he has always maintained this big disconnect is unsustainable & a shock could close this gap .. "A sufficient shock will shift investment strategy from 'risk-on' to 'risk-off'" .. in this scenario, he likes U.S. Treasury bonds & Japanese stocks, but developed country stocks, homebuilders, junk bonds, commodities, & emerging market stocks/bonds are unattractive .. "Also caught in the shift from 'risk-on' to 'risk-off' are closed-end bond funds where leverage and investor zeal magnified their performance earlier but recently have promoted grief .. Already, three members of the 'risk-off' quartet are in place as stocks and commodities fall while the dollar strengthens. The fourth member, U.S. Treasury Bonds, were hit by the Fed's announcements but may rally as falling stocks highlight their safe- haven appeal and overshadow fears of QE terminus."
LINK HERE to the article
No comments:
Post a Comment