Sunday, 17 February 2013

Cliff Küle's Notes:

Cliff Küle's Notes
Reflections on our world & its money (The Great Confidence Game)
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Feb 17th 2013, 10:57

On The Possibilities of Hyperinflation
GMO's James Montier (AE) .. on where hyperinflation could possibly happen in the modern era .. emphasizes hyperinflation is not purely a monetary phenomenon - massive money printing only will not likely cause hyperinflation .. instead, it is caused more often by massive supply shock, coupled with external debts denominated in a foreign currency & social unrest ..  "On the basis of these preconditions, I would argue that those forecasting hyperinflation in nations such as the U.S., the UK, or Japan are suffering from hyperinflation hysteria. If one were to worry about hyperinflation anywhere, I believe it would have to be with respect to the break-up of the eurozone. Such an event could create the preconditions for hyperinflation .. Indeed, the past warns of this potential outcome: the collapse of the Austro-Hungarian Empire, Yugoslavia, and the Soviet Union all led to the emergence of hyperinflation!" ..  says hyperinflations are rare events, when populations lose complete faith in their currencies.
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